2015 – Yield forecasting. Focus on Greece
The regional modelling solution was run for the time window 2000-2014 and in real-time (i.e.2015). Outputs were temporally and spatially analyzed for the six studied areas (Thessaloniki and Serres – GREECE, Valencia and Tarragona – SPAIN, Vercelli and Lomellina – ITALY).
Rice yields forecasted for 2015 were provided to ERMES Greek partners. State variables of the WARM model (i.e., aboveground biomass, yield, leaf area index) simulated both in potential and blast-limited conditions, variables obtained by forcing the model with remote sensing values of LAI and meteorological indicators (i.e., cumulated maximum and minimum temperatures), were related in the form of a multiple linear regression with the time series 2003-2014 of official rice yields. A cross-validation procedure was applied in order to select the regression model better able to explain the inter-annual variability of yields, that was then applied to forecast 2015 production in Serres and Thessaloniki.