2015 – Yield forecasting. Focus on Greece

The regional modelling solution was run for the time window 2000-2014 and in real-time (i.e.2015). Outputs were temporally and spatially analyzed for the six studied areas (Thessaloniki and Serres – GREECE, Valencia and Tarragona – SPAIN, Vercelli and Lomellina – ITALY).


Spatial trend of simulated aboveground biomass in 2013

Rice yields forecasted for 2015 were provided to ERMES Greek partners. State variables of the WARM model (i.e., aboveground biomass, yield, leaf area index) simulated both in potential and blast-limited conditions, variables obtained by forcing the model with remote sensing values of LAI and meteorological indicators (i.e., cumulated maximum and minimum temperatures), were related in the form of a multiple linear regression with the time series 2003-2014 of official rice yields. A cross-validation procedure was applied in order to select the regression model better able to explain the inter-annual variability of yields, that was then applied to forecast 2015 production in Serres and Thessaloniki.


2015 yield forecasting in Greece